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| CREDIT: Lara Solt, Knight Ridder |
| IMPERIAL OIL LTD.'S COLD LAKE PROJECT IN ALBERTA: Energy has pushed the province's standard of living to the top of the heap in Canada and among the best in the Western world. | |
CALGARY - Energy wealth will accelerate Alberta's already nation-leading economy, pulling living standards, population growth, incomes, labour markets, industrial performance and government tax flexibility far ahead of the rest of the country over the next decade.
In an in-depth report provided exclusively to the Calgary Herald, economists with BMO Financial Group have concluded Alberta's economic growth will outpace the rest of the country by a wide margin during the next 10 years, producing a broad menu of fiscal, social and commercial benefits that will leave the province in a league of its own.
"Alberta is on a roll. In the last two years its economy has expanded about one percentage point faster than the national economy," says the report, to be released this week.
"While energy prices should moderate in the decade ahead. ... Alberta should continue to lead the rest of the nation in economic performance.
"The province's fiscal situation, already tops in the nation, should improve further, and ... government will have plenty of scope to improve the province's tax competitiveness, social services and infrastructure."
It's an assessment shared by many other observers, including the Conference Board of Canada.
"[A] strong energy sector is lifting construction output, consumer spending, manufacturing output and the province's fiscal situation," said Mario Lefebvre, the board's director of Metropolitan Outlook. "All of this bodes well for provincial government spending on goods and services."
Rick Egelton, BMO's senior vice-president and chief economist, said elevated energy prices are magnifying the underlying strengths Alberta has been able to assemble, including a low-tax climate, superior government finances, a well-educated and young workforce, an increasingly diversified industrial base and strong personal income growth.
"Alberta's is a fundamentally strong economy that is strengthened even further by very high energy prices -- and it's really as simple as that," Mr. Egelton said yesterday.
"The economy in Alberta right now is extraordinarily strong," Mr. Egelton said. "In my professional experience, this is about as good as it's going to get for a province. Its fiscal house is in order, it has the potential to make more moves on the tax side, it has potential to invest in key strategic priorities of the government, and it has a good economic base."
For Albertans, the BMO outlook forecasts their living standards, already the highest in Canada and among the best in the Western world, are set to improve further, rising to 55% above the national average by 2015 from today's level -- 45% above the national average and 40% higher than Ontario.
However, the benefits of the strong economy go far beyond living standards, says the analysis, prepared over the past two months of 2005.
"Alberta should continue to offer the best job prospects in the nation ... and the largest increase in incomes," it said. Specifically, Alberta unemployment rate is forecast to average 3.5% to 2015, three percentage points lower than Canada's, while Albertans' personal disposable income will soar 71% to $46,100 from $26,961 in 2004, 23% higher than the Canadian average.
Against that backdrop, BMO argues Alberta's government will have unprecedented flexibility to boost social spending and to cut taxes, making the province even more competitive.
"With its coffers bulging from sizable energy royalties, the provincial government is in an exceptional position to increase spending on targeted areas -- primarily health and infrastructure," says the report, from a unit of the Bank of Montreal and affiliate of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
"Of all the provinces, Alberta will be the best placed to meet increased demand for health care from an ageing population."
The report echoes and amplifies themes discussed recently by Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist of CIBC World Markets Inc., who believes economic circumstances have set the stage for Alberta to eclipse Canada's traditional economic heartland in Ontario.
"Nowhere will those disparities be more evident than in a comparison of the relative outlooks for energy-rich Alberta and energy-hungry Ontario," Mr. Rubin said. Extraordinarily bullish on Alberta, he believes the province's economy will grow by more than 7% in 2006, compared with less than 2% for Ontario and 2.9% for the country.
"Economic imbalances are likely to lead to even greater fiscal ones," Mr. Rubin said.
"Further reductions in what are already the lowest personal income taxes in the country and perhaps even the elimination of income taxes may ultimately prove to be a greater competitive challenge to central Canada than rising energy prices themselves."
However, Mr. Egelton downplayed interprovincial and intergovernmental tensions, citing the federal government's strong finances and Canada's robust economy, as well as the relatively positive performances of the economies of Alberta's neighbours, British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
"Will it create some tensions?" he said. "It may, but those tensions have existed for quite a while."